The Iran Deal: Everything You Need to Know

By Rhiannon Winner on August 17, 2015

There’s been a lot of debate over the historic Iran Nuclear Deal. Some are saying it’s the path to America’s destruction, while others claim it’s the ideal outcome. Is it the death of the U.S. or a godsend? That’s up to you to decide. To help you figure it out, here is a rundown of the facts behind the most talked about parts of the deal, and answers to some of the most popular questions.

Image Credit: http://www.rtcc.org/2015/04/06/three-lessons-the-iran-nuclear-deal-can-teach-climate-negotiators/

What is the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?

That’s quite a mouthful, so most news sources will refer to it as the Iran Deal. The JCPOA was an agreement signed by Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union that limits the Iranian nuclear program. In exchange for imposing limits on Iran, the rest of the world will lift debilitating sanctions.

The deal does not require “anytime, anywhere” inspections

The White House says that such access isn’t necessary, because IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors will regularly be conducting searches of every process, from mining to refinement. However, if inspectors suspect there is suspicious activity, they only have to provide 24 hours notice before searching the facility. This would not be enough time for Iran to hide the evidence if they were breaking the agreement. If Iran resisted at every turn, it could take up to 24 days for inspectors to finally get access. The White House says this still isn’t enough time for Iran to stage a cover up, because “radioactive evidence” could still be detected.

Iran is still able to enrich uranium

Under the deal, Iran will still be allowed to enrich uranium. IAEA inspectors will have full access to facilities where uranium is enriched, and uranium will not be enriched over 3.67%. That is far too low for Iran to use for a nuclear weapon, but still useful for civilian purposes. Its stockpile, some of which contains uranium far more enriched, will be depleted to near extinction.

Image Credit: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/u-s-iran-closing-nuclear-deal/

Every pathway to creating a nuclear weapon is blocked

As this graphic released by the White House shows, it’s going to be tough for Iran to secretly create a weapon. Of course, the graphic is oversimplifying the situation, but it is accurate. Its stockpiles and uranium enrichment grade will be lowered to the point that it would be impossible for the Iranians to create a nuclear weapon. Iran has a single facility that could manufacture weapons-grade plutonium, and it is being redesigned so that it could no longer create it. It uses a heavy water reactor, and the White House estimates it would take 15 years for the Iranians to construct another. The IAEA monitors every stage of production, so the Iranians would have to be ninjas to get away with constructing a nuclear weapon under their noses.

Image Credit: https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal

Doesn’t it just delay the problem?

Yes and no. According to the New York Times, an oft-cited figure puts Iran less than three months away from creating a nuclear weapon without the deal. The harshest provisions expire in 15 years, so for at least 15 years, there is no chance of Iran creating a nuclear weapon. Afterwards, anything could happen: ideally, relations with Iran would improve to the point that another deal could be reached. No one knows what the world is going to look like in another 15 years, so there’s no point in speculating now. It may be easy to continue to block Iran’s pathways to a nuclear weapon, or it may become tougher. There’s simply no way to know yet.

Iran has few incentives to break the deal

Iran has insisted that its nuclear program is entirely civilian, and that they do not want to create a bomb. If they are being honest, then there is no reason they would want to break the deal, because it allows them to continue with civilian uses. No deal should be entirely based on trust, though. Iran has more incentives to stick to the deal: the deal lifts crippling economic sanctions. If Iran steps out of line, those sanctions would “snapback” in place. Within 65 days, everything can return to a pre-deal state; except, the world knows where all of Iran’s nuclear facilities are and Iran’s economy will stall again.

Why did we make a deal instead of taking military action?

Many in the government are convinced that Iran is untrustworthy. The deal has safeguards, such as the return of sanctions and near-immediate access to any Iranian site, so Iran’s trustworthiness shouldn’t be of much concern. However, some argue that just bombing Iran’s nuclear program out of existence would solve the problem. The U.S. doesn’t have enough intelligence to find all of Iran’s nuclear sites. There is intelligence on multiple sites, but not all of them. A bombing campaign would surely destroy some targets, but it would be highly unlikely that every facility would be taken out. A military option would be far more risky, and allow a greater chance of Iran developing or purchasing a nuclear weapon.

Image Credit: http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/U-S-Israeli-Attacks-Unlikely-to-Destroy-Iran-s-Nuclear-Programme.htm

So will the Iran Deal pave a path to nuclear war, or will it usher in a new age of world peace? As with most things, the answer probably lies somewhere between the extremes.

Information gathered from:The White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal and https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal/q-and-a), Politico (http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/full-text-iran-deal-120080.html), CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/opinions/franken-iran-deal/), The Brookings Institution (http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/08/03-iran-sanctions-future-nuclear-deal-maloney), Vox (http://www.vox.com/2015/7/14/8963503/iran-nuclear-deal-violation), The Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-accepting-the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-a-no-brainer/2015/08/13/06adba26-3c5c-11e5-b3ac-8a79bc44e5e2_story.html), and The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/opinion/the-high-price-of-rejecting-the-iran-deal.html).

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